OpenAI's 2030 ad goal far exceeds one market estimate
OpenAI expects its advertising revenue to rise from $2.5 billion in 2026 to $100 billion in 2030. firm eMarketer predicts a much smaller market.
It estimates that all in the United States will make less than $1 billion from ads in 2026 and $5.41 billion in 2030. Its estimate covers ChatGPT, Microsoft's Copilot app, Google's AI Mode, and Amazon's Alexa for Shopping.
On that basis, the entire 2030 market would equal only about 5% of OpenAI's own target. eMarketer believes OpenAI's plan relies on taking a large share of advertising money from traditional search services and leading a mature chatbot advertising market.
Key points
- OpenAI's advertising revenue target for 2030 is $100 billion.
- eMarketer puts the total 2030 US standalone chatbot ad market at $5.41 billion.
- The estimate includes ChatGPT, Copilot, AI Mode, and Alexa for Shopping.
- OpenAI's plan depends on drawing substantial advertising budgets away from traditional search.
- The geographic and scope of the two forecasts may differ.